Bolivia

Current status

Bolivia faces heightened political and security risks following a pattern of escalating violence over the past 30 days, including two critical incidents involving an assassination and chemical weapons deployment. With 12 total events recorded—9 of which were high or critical severity—the country's already fragile institutional environment has deteriorated further, compounded by ongoing civil unrest and demonstrations in La Paz.

Supply chain impact

• Natural gas exports to Brazil and Argentina face disruption risks as political instability threatens pipeline operations and production facilities, particularly given Bolivia's role as a key regional energy supplier.
• Mining operations for zinc, gold, and tungsten are vulnerable to work stoppages and security incidents, with indigenous land rights disputes creating additional uncertainty around extraction permits and community relations.
• Land transport corridors connecting Bolivia's landlocked territory to Pacific and Atlantic ports may experience delays due to civil unrest, affecting the country's ability to export commodities and import essential goods.
• Energy-intensive industries in neighboring countries dependent on Bolivian natural gas supplies should prepare contingency sourcing plans as political volatility could impact cross-border energy infrastructure.

Watch points

• Monitor for expansion of civil unrest beyond La Paz to other major cities, particularly Cochabamba and Santa Cruz, which could disrupt mining and agricultural operations across multiple regions.
• Track any escalation in indigenous land rights protests that could affect mining concessions and natural gas extraction sites, especially following the recent repeal of land privatization legislation.
• Watch for potential impacts on regional energy security if political violence affects natural gas pipeline infrastructure connecting to Brazil and Argentina.