Bahrain
Bahrain (BH)CRITICALMiddle East · pop. 1,485,000 · GDP 44,994 M USD
Why this score? · top 3 of 20 events driving the 30-day risk
Major industries
Major exports
30d events
AI Brief
Current status
Bahrain faces severe domestic unrest with 42 critical and high-severity events over the past 30 days, including military force deployment and widespread coercive actions across major cities including Manama and Muharraq. The kingdom is experiencing its most significant internal security crisis in recent memory, with government forces conducting extensive crackdowns on protesters and civil society. All recorded events fall into the economic/political category, indicating systemic governance challenges rather than isolated incidents.
Supply chain impact
- Aluminum exports face immediate disruption risk as unrest affects industrial areas around Muharraq, where key smelting facilities operate, potentially impacting global aluminum supply chains dependent on Bahraini production.
- Crude oil export operations through Bahrain's refineries and port infrastructure are vulnerable to protest-related shutdowns, affecting regional energy markets and buyers in Asia who rely on Bahraini petroleum products.
- Financial services sector disruptions could impact trade financing and letters of credit for Gulf region commerce, given Bahrain's role as a regional banking hub serving Saudi Arabia and other GCC markets.
- Bahrain International Airport operations may face intermittent disruptions affecting air cargo and passenger connections between Asia and Europe, particularly given recent security incidents in the Muharraq area.
- Regional supply chain coordination could suffer as companies reassess Bahrain-based regional headquarters and logistics operations amid ongoing security concerns.
Watch points
- Monitor protest activity and government responses in industrial zones around Sitra (oil refining) and Muharraq (aluminum/airport) over the next two weeks for direct supply chain impacts.
- Track any escalation in regional tensions with Iran, as recent arrests linked to IRGC could trigger broader Gulf security measures affecting maritime and air cargo flows.
- Watch for potential labor strikes or work stoppages in key export industries, particularly aluminum smelting operations which require continuous production cycles.
Risk by layer
90d risk trend
Structural risk profile
Produced commodities
Dependent chokepoints
Recent events (20)
- HIGHReduce diplomatic ties in Bahrain2026-06-02
- HIGHArrest/detain in Bahrain2026-05-25
- HIGHArrest/detain in Bahrain2026-05-18
- CRITICALCoercive action in Al WustáA, Bahrain2026-05-17
- HIGHArrest/detain in Al WustáA, Bahrain2026-05-17
- HIGHArrest/detain in Al WustáA, Bahrain2026-05-17
- CRITICALCoercive action in Al Manamah, Bahrain2026-05-17
- HIGHArrest/detain in Al Manamah, Bahrain2026-05-17
- HIGHArrest/detain in Bahrain2026-05-16
- HIGHArrest/detain in Bahrain2026-05-16
- HIGHMilitary force (coercive) in Bahrain2026-05-16
- HIGHArrest/detain in Bahrain2026-05-16
- HIGHArrest/detain in Bahrain2026-05-16
- CRITICALAssault in Bahrain2026-05-14
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Bahrain2026-05-14
- CRITICALTank/artillery attack in Bahrain2026-05-14
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Bahrain2026-05-14
- HIGHMilitary force (coercive) in Bahrain2026-05-13
- HIGHArrest/detain in Bahrain2026-05-13
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Al Manamah, Bahrain2026-05-13
Related News (27)
- Bahrain Imposes Travel Ban For Citizens Traveling to Iran And Iraqmuscatdaily.com·2026-06-02
Reduce diplomatic ties reported in Bahrain. Actors: BAHRAIN, CITIZEN. Tension (Goldstein): -4 · 10 sources.
- Bahrain Court Convicts Suspects Working Irgcmiddleeasteye.net·2026-05-25
Arrest/detain reported in Bahrain. Actors: BAHRAIN, PRISON. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 10 sources.
- Man Jailed For Life For Assisting IRGC And Hizbollahgdnonline.com·2026-05-18
Arrest/detain reported in Bahrain. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 5 sources.
- Bahraini Scholars Call on Islamic Authorities to Denounce Anti Shia Crackdownislamicinvitationturkey.com·2026-05-17
Coercive action reported in Manama, Al Manamah, Bahrain. Actors: BAHRAIN, IRAN. Tension (Goldstein): -7 · 8 sources.
- Bahraini Demonstrators Condemn al Khalifah Regimes Crackdown on Protestersislamicinvitationturkey.com·2026-05-17
Arrest/detain reported in Sitra, Al WustáA, Bahrain. Actors: BAHRAIN, IRAN. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 10 sources.
- Bahrain Protest Crackdown Shiapresstv.ir·2026-05-17
Coercive action reported in Sitra, Al WustáA, Bahrain. Actors: BAHRAINI, SHIA. Tension (Goldstein): -7 · 6 sources.
- Arrest/detain in Bahraingdnonline.com·2026-05-16
Arrest/detain reported in Bahrain. Actors: BAHRAIN. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 20 sources.
- Military force (coercive) in Bahraingdnonline.com·2026-05-16
Military force (coercive) reported in Bahrain. Actors: BAHRAIN. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 10 sources.
- Arrest/detain in Bahraingdnonline.com·2026-05-16
Arrest/detain reported in Bahrain. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 10 sources.
- Arrest/detain in Bahraingdnonline.com·2026-05-16
Arrest/detain reported in Bahrain. Actors: BAHRAIN, KINGDOM. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 10 sources.
- Teacher Detained For Allegedly Assaulting a Disabled Studentgdnonline.com·2026-05-14
Assault reported in Bahrain. Actors: BAHRAIN, STUDENT. Tension (Goldstein): -9 · 5 sources.
- Bahrain Airport Get New Aircraft Rescue And Fire Fighting Vehicleturbonews.com·2026-05-14
Use conventional military force reported in Bahrain. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 5 sources.
- Bahrain Sentences Three to Life in Prison Over Links to Irans Irgcthenationalnews.com·2026-05-13
Military force (coercive) reported in Bahrain. Actors: PRISON, BAHRAINI. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 7 sources.
- Bahraini Protesters Manama Crackdown Campaign Sympathizing With Iranpresstv.ir·2026-05-13
Use conventional military force reported in Manama, Al Manamah, Bahrain. Actors: BAHRAIN, THE US. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 8 sources.
- Kuwaiti Says Its Security Forces Clashed Assailants From Iranthenationalnews.com·2026-05-12
Arrest/detain reported in Bahrain. Actors: BAHRAIN, PRISON. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 10 sources.
- Plan to Extend Travel Ban on Debt Defaulters Backedgdnonline.com·2026-05-11
Military force (coercive) reported in Bahrain. Actors: BAHRAIN. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 5 sources.
- Iran Warns The us Against Attacks on Its Oil Tankers And Other Ships But Ceasefire Appears to Holdreligionnews.com·2026-05-11
Arrest/detain reported in Bahrain. Actors: IRAN, BAHRAIN. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 5 sources.
- Mil Presstv04globalsecurity.org·2026-05-10
Use conventional military force reported in Muharraq Island, Al Mu?arraq, Bahrain. Actors: BAHRAIN, THE US. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 8 sources.
- Iran Presstv02globalsecurity.org·2026-05-10
Unconventional violence reported in Bahrain. Actors: BAHRAINI, IRAN. Tension (Goldstein): -9 · 6 sources.
- Arrest/detain in Bahraingdnonline.com·2026-05-10
Arrest/detain reported in Bahrain. Actors: BAHRAIN, IRAN. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 4 sources.
- Bahrain Interior Ministry Arrests 41 Individuals Linked to Iran Associated Organizationthepeninsulaqatar.com·2026-05-09
Arrest/detain reported in Manama, Al Manamah, Bahrain. Actors: MANAMA, IRAN. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 10 sources.
- Bahraini Forces Abduct Dozens Over Sympathizing With Iran Amid US Israeli War of Aggressionpresstv.ir·2026-05-09
Use conventional military force reported in Muharraq Island, Al Mu?arraq, Bahrain. Actors: BAHRAIN, THE US. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 8 sources.
- a Fragile Ceasefire Holds as us Awaits Iran Response Bahrain Detains Dozenseconomictimes.indiatimes.com·2026-05-09
Arrest/detain reported in Bahrain. Actors: BAHRAIN, IRAN. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 5 sources.
- Duo Sentenced to Life in Jail For Smuggling Drugsgdnonline.com·2026-05-08
Arrest/detain reported in Bahrain. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 5 sources.
- Arrest/detain in Al Mu?arraq, Bahraingdnonline.com·2026-05-08
Arrest/detain reported in Bahrain International Airport, Al Mu?arraq, Bahrain. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 5 sources.
- Military force (coercive) in Bahraingdnonline.com·2026-05-07
Military force (coercive) reported in Bahrain. Actors: BAHRAIN. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 10 sources.
- Legal detention in Bahraingdnonline.com·2026-05-06
Legal detention reported in Bahrain. Actors: BAHRAIN. Tension (Goldstein): -9.2 · 5 sources.