[Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico] Economic blockade — MEXICAN → CALIFORNIA

Supply-chain Risk Briefing: Tijuana Economic Blockade

1. Summary

A large-scale economic blockade has occurred in the Tijuana-San Diego border region, cutting off major trade routes between the US and Mexico. Major blockades were reported at the San Ysidro and Tecate checkpoints from March 18-20, with the situation assessed as critical level as of April 17. The tension index of -9.5 raises concerns about serious adverse effects on bilateral relations.

2. Supply-chain impact

• North American manufacturing supply chain paralysis: Tijuana is a key hub for Mexico's maquiladora industry, with potential disruption to assembly and export of electronics, automotive parts, and medical devices
• Agricultural distribution delays: Blockade of Mexican fresh produce (avocados, berries, vegetables) entering California expected to impact US West Coast food supply chains
• Port-linked logistics congestion: Disruption of overland transport routes for container cargo traveling from Long Beach/Los Angeles ports to Mexico's interior
• Energy infrastructure risk: Potential impact on US-Mexico electricity and natural gas trade and pipeline operations
• Border customs processing delays: Concerns about saturation of alternative routes as a significant portion of the $100 billion annual trade volume between the two countries transits through this region

3. Watch points

• Blockade duration and scope of expansion: Whether protests spread to nearby checkpoints such as Otay Mesa and Calexico, and government response measures
• Maquiladora factory utilization rates: Track the scale of production shutdowns at Tijuana-based manufacturers and status of securing alternative transport routes
• USMCA agreement implementation impact: Risk of potential violations of USMCA logistics provisions due to economic blockade and subsequent trade dispute risks