南アフリカ
South Africa (ZA)CRITICALEast Africa · 人口 60,410,000 · GDP 380,906 百万USD
このスコアの根拠 · 30日間のリスクを動かしたイベント20件のうちTop 3
主要産業
主要輸出品
30日事象
AIブリーフ
現況
南アフリカは、ハウテン州での通常軍事力と化学兵器展開の複数報告を含む9件の重要かつ高深刻度事象が過去30日間に集中し、前例のない安全保障危機に直面している。この状況は、同国のベースライン政治不安定から劇的にエスカレートしており、軍事作戦がハウテン州（ヨハネスブルグを含む経済の中心地）と西ケープ州の両方で現在活発化している。
サプライチェーンへの影響
- ハウテン州が重要な金・プラチナ採掘インフラを擁するため、採鉱事業は深刻な混乱に直面し、軍事作戦により世界最大のプラチナ生産国で鉱山閉鎖や労働者安全への脅威が生じる可能性がある。
- ハウテン州に集中する自動車製造業が即座にリスクにさらされ、ヨハネスブルグ・プレトリア回廊で主要施設を運営するBMW、メルセデス・ベンツ、フォードなどブランドの世界自動車サプライチェーンに影響する可能性がある。
- 内陸鉱山からの輸送回廊が紛争地帯を通過するため、リチャーズベイ・ダーバン港を通じた石炭輸出物流が遅延や停止に直面し、特にインドと中国のアジアバイヤーに影響する可能性がある。
- アフリカ最大の金融センターであるヨハネスブルグでの金融サービス業務が運用上の混乱を経験し、サハラ以南アフリカ全域の貿易金融と商品取引に影響する可能性がある。
- 採鉱地域が軍事化地帯になることで世界の鉄鋼生産者への鉄鉱石出荷が脅かされ、中国や欧州製鉄所を含む主要輸入国への供給に影響する可能性がある。
注視ポイント
- 内陸輸送が妨害されることで、リチャーズベイ、ダーバン、ケープタウン港での貨物滞留、船舶迂回、不可抗力宣言について港湾運営を監視する。
- 国際鉱業会社の勧告と、ハウテン州拠点の事業、特にプラチナ・金生産業者からの非必須職員の潜在的避難を追跡する。
- 現在の州を超えてクワズール・ナタール州や北ケープ州を含む拡大について注視し、これは追加の採鉱地域と重要なダーバン港複合施設を脅かすことになる。
レイヤー別リスク
90日間リスク推移
構造的リスクプロファイル
生産商品
依存チョークポイント
最近の事象（20）
- CRITICALクワズール・ナタール州、南アフリカ2026-06-02
- MEDIUM南アフリカ（108件の検出）での活発な野焼きクラスター2026-05-31
- CRITICAL南アフリカの豪州地域での強制措置2026-05-30
- CRITICAL南アフリカの豪州地域での強制措置2026-05-30
- MEDIUM南アフリカ（67件）での活発な山火事クラスター2026-05-30
- HIGH南アフリカ（151件）での活発な野焼きクラスター2026-05-29
- CRITICAL南アフリカ西ケープ州で核警報2026-05-28
- MEDIUM南アフリカ共和国における活発な山火事クラスター（28件の検知）2026-05-28
- CRITICAL南アフリカ西ケープ州での抗議活動2026-05-28
- HIGH南アフリカ西ケープ州でのデモ/集会2026-05-28
- HIGH南アフリカ（254件）での活発な山火事クラスター2026-05-27
- HIGH南アフリカ（261件）2026-05-26
- HIGH南アフリカのガウテン州で逮捕・拘束2026-05-25
- HIGH南アフリカ共和国の活発な山火事クラスター（189件の検知）2026-05-25
- CRITICAL東ケープ州2026-05-25
- HIGH南アフリカのガウテン州で逮捕・拘留2026-05-24
- HIGH南アフリカのガウテン州で逮捕・拘留2026-05-24
- MEDIUM南アフリカ（62件）での活発な山火事クラスター2026-05-24
- MEDIUM南アフリカ（80件）での活発な野焼きクラスター2026-05-23
- CRITICAL南アフリカ共和国ヨハネスブルグ近郊の軍事演習2026-05-22
関連ニュース (30)
- Umlazi Shooting Sentence Relief to Families Cpfecr.co.za·2026-06-02
Chemical weapons used reported in Umlazi, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Actors: COMMUNITY, DURBAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 3 sources.
- Coercive action in Gauteng, South Africaenglish.news.cn·2026-05-30
Coercive action reported in Johannesburg, Gauteng, South Africa. Actors: GOVERNMENT, JOHANNESBURG. Tension (Goldstein): -7 · 3 sources.
- Hundreds of Cape Town Pupils Stone Vehicles Loot Shops During Protest Against Foreign Nationalsnews24.com·2026-05-28
Protest reported in Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa. Actors: CAPE TOWN, FOREIGN NATIONAL. Tension (Goldstein): -7.5 · 4 sources.
- Paul Mashatile Visits Cape Flats After Sandfs Deployment South Africans Question His Intentionsghanamma.com·2026-05-28
Nuclear alert reported in Cape Flats, Western Cape, South Africa. Actors: SOUTH AFRICAN, DEFENCE FORCE. Tension (Goldstein): -7.2 · 6 sources.
- Arrest/detain in Gauteng, South Africaallafrica.com·2026-05-25
Arrest/detain reported in Johannesburg, Gauteng, South Africa. Actors: SOUTH AFRICAN, MIGRANT. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 6 sources.
- 05 25 Sowetan Pandor Robbery Shows no One is Safe in sasowetan.co.za·2026-05-25
Use conventional military force reported in Kwazulu, Eastern Cape, South Africa. Actors: GAUTENG, AFRICA. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 4 sources.
- Police Captain Arrested Defeating Ends Justiceenca.com·2026-05-24
Arrest/detain reported in Pretoria, Gauteng, South Africa. Actors: JOHANNESBURG, POLICE CAPTAIN. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 4 sources.
- 05 24 Sas Cocaine Shame How Cops Bungled Global Trafficking Casesdailymaverick.co.za·2026-05-24
Arrest/detain reported in Johannesburg, Gauteng, South Africa. Actors: JOHANNESBURG, BRAZIL. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 4 sources.
- Durban Police Probe Foreign National Assaultsecr.co.za·2026-05-22
Assault reported in Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Actors: DURBAN, FOREIGN NATIONAL. Tension (Goldstein): -9 · 6 sources.
- Integrity360 to Unpack Politics of Future Info Networksitweb.co.za·2026-05-22
Military exercise reported in Johannesburg, Gauteng, South Africa. Actors: CAPE TOWN. Tension (Goldstein): -7.2 · 10 sources.
- 05 21 Sahrc Probe Finds Gautengs Water Crisis is a Man Made Disasterdailymaverick.co.za·2026-05-21
Demonstration/rally reported in Gauteng, Gauteng, South Africa. Actors: GAUTENG. Tension (Goldstein): -6.5 · 3 sources.
- Charge Launches South Africas First Off Grid ev Charging Network on The n3 Corridor Backed by Dbsacbn.co.za·2026-05-21
Demonstration/rally reported in Wolmaransstad, North-West, South Africa. Actors: AFRICA, NORTH WEST. Tension (Goldstein): -6.5 · 8 sources.
- South African Anger Against Immigrants is Misdirected Confront Ramaphosa Over Why he Shields The Mnangagwa Regimethezimbabwean.co·2026-05-20
Arrest/detain reported in Pretoria, Gauteng, South Africa. Actors: SOUTH AFRICAN, AFRICA. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 4 sources.
- 05 20 Cape Anti Apartheid Veteran Among Activists Held After Gaza Flotilla Interceptedtimeslive.co.za·2026-05-20
Unconventional violence reported in Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa. Actors: SOUTH AFRICAN, DELEGATE. Tension (Goldstein): -9 · 4 sources.
- 3 Suspected Criminals Killed in Shootout With Cops in Durbanewn.co.za·2026-05-20
Chemical weapons used reported in Mariannhill, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Actors: CRIMINAL, DURBAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 6 sources.
- March And March Slams Protesting Foreign Nationals Xenophobia Claimsewn.co.za·2026-05-20
Demonstration/rally reported in Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Actors: FOREIGN NATIONAL, DURBAN. Tension (Goldstein): -6.5 · 6 sources.
- Police Deploy Maximum Resources to Track Down Killers of Mahikeng Crime Activistofm.co.za·2026-05-20
Chemical weapons used reported in South Africa. Actors: VILLAGE, NORTH WEST. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 6 sources.
- Opinion Sandf The Ancs Employment Force Defence Webirr.org.za·2026-05-20
Troop buildup reported in South Africa. Actors: MILITARY, SOUTH AFRICAN. Tension (Goldstein): -7.2 · 4 sources.
- Femi Falana Petitions Africannigerianeye.com·2026-05-20
Arrest/detain reported in Pretoria, Gauteng, South Africa. Actors: PRETORIA, NIGERIA. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 4 sources.
- Johannesburg High Court Postpones Marble Towers Legal Battleewn.co.za·2026-05-20
Use conventional military force reported in Johannesburg, Gauteng, South Africa. Actors: AFRICA, JOHANNESBURG. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 4 sources.
- South Africas Watershed Elections Awry The Beloved Countryafricaresearchinstitute.org·2026-05-20
Demonstration/rally reported in Johannesburg, Gauteng, South Africa. Actors: SOUTH AFRICAN, GOVERNMENT. Tension (Goldstein): -6.5 · 3 sources.
- South Africas Watershed Elections Awry The Beloved Countryafricaresearchinstitute.org·2026-05-19
Demonstration/rally reported in Johannesburg, Gauteng, South Africa. Actors: SOUTH AFRICAN, GOVERNMENT. Tension (Goldstein): -6.5 · 3 sources.
- 05 19 Anc Axes Ngcukayitobi And Papo as Party Moves to Tighten Control in Gauteng And Eastern Capetimeslive.co.za·2026-05-19
Military force (coercive) reported in Gauteng, Gauteng, South Africa. Actors: AFRICA, EASTERN CAPE. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 4 sources.
- Storm Victims Warned to Check Flood Cover as Insurance Claims Surgeewn.co.za·2026-05-18
Legal detention reported in Rawsonville, Western Cape, South Africa. Actors: AFRICA, WESTERN CAPE. Tension (Goldstein): -9.2 · 4 sources.
- Police Investigate Four Murders After Western Cape Mass Shootingcitizen.co.za·2026-05-17
Chemical weapons used reported in Wesbank, Western Cape, South Africa. Actors: POLICE, WESTERN CAPE. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 10 sources.
- Two Days Now we Get Vicious Fadiel Adamsenca.com·2026-05-16
Arrest/detain reported in Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa. Actors: CAPE TOWN, CONGRESS. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 6 sources.
- Deputy Minister Nonceba Mhlauli Addresses Seventh Daygov.za·2026-05-15
Arrest/detain reported in Pretoria, Gauteng, South Africa. Actors: DEPUTY, PRETORIA. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 8 sources.
- Case Against Dumisani Khumalo co Accused Postponed to Septemberewn.co.za·2026-05-15
Arrest/detain reported in Pretoria, Gauteng, South Africa. Actors: PRETORIA, AFRICA. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 4 sources.
- Article South Africa Anti Migrant Protests Backlashtheglobeandmail.com·2026-05-15
Use conventional military force reported in Pretoria, Gauteng, South Africa. Actors: POLITICIAN, SOUTH AFRICAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 6 sources.
- Family of 3 Killed in Crash Involving sa Health Ministers Vehicle Named as Zimbabweansthezimbabwean.co·2026-05-15
Use conventional military force reported in Johannesburg, Gauteng, South Africa. Actors: JOHANNESBURG, AFRICA. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 5 sources.